Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Who's Who 2012

Things have changed since my last political post on the debate. Since my GOP 2012 in a Nutshell post, we have seen a few people drop out and some new people join the battle. Here are a few thoughts to help you get to know the candidates a little more.

Who is running? What do they believe?

TOP Tier:

Romney is the front runner when it comes to money and name recognition. Every other candidate knows that RomneyCare is going to hurt him. And rightly so. RomneyCare has all the same problems that ObamaCare does. They both have taxpayer funding of abortion, individual mandates, and government control of the industry. If people don't like ObamaCare, I don't think they'll like Romney.

Bachmann has shocked the political elite (including Bill Clinton) by jumping to the lead in several recent polls. You will not find a candidate more conservative than her and she is a great speaker. She, however, can be difficult to work with and does not have any meaningful leadership experience. I like her, and she has proven herself ideologically but I'd like her to prove herself as a leader.

Pawlenty has experience and the smarts, but some complain that he is boring. Personally, I would like results over talk, a record over words, and a solid reputation over a record that changes with political need. He has worked hard to reach various audiences: homeschoolers, people who care about American foreign policy, and past Huckabee supporters.

Huntsman is running as the moderate in the room. One of the first mailers that his people sent out after he announced his candidacy was him taking credit for legalizing civil unions as Governor of Utah. He looks the part of the President, but I don't think that he will have much appeal with the conservative base.

Palin* is a rock star. The question, however, is whether or not she is running. She is solid on the issues that conservatives care about, but her popularity has suffered from three years of constant scrutiny and even attacks leveled from her nemesis: The Main Stream Media. I imagine that her best move right now is to stay out and use her political clout to regain credibility with the base.

Perry* is not official. Like Palin, he is flirting with running. Some (Karl Rove, Rep. Canseco, and other unnamed Republicans) say that he has decided to run, but there has been no confirmation. He is one of the most interesting possible candidates. On one hand, he has been a leader calling the nation to fast and pray and fighting for states' rights. On the other hand, he endorsed pro-abortion Rudy Giuliani in 2008 and ordered that all girls in Texas take HPV vaccines. He would shake up the race if he got in, but he would have a hard time facing Obama in a general election, if only because he sounds too much like Bush.

MIDDLE Tier:

Santorum is a homeschool dad and was a leader fighting against abortion in the Senate a few short years ago. He repeatedly followed the party line on spending bills and he endorsed a pro-abortion Senator against now Senator Pat Toomey in 2004. He is a great guy, but the window of opportunity is closing for him to jump into the top tier.

Cain is a strong speaker and quick thinker. He is running as the outside-of-the-beltway guy, but the issue he has is that he doesn't have any experience. He has run huge companies, but his political experience is limited to arguing on TV with Bill Clinton. He will need to show some improvement in key polls or else his supporters will start looking elsewhere.

Bottom Tier:

Gingrich-Campaign is imploding and he is not working on building a winning plan.

Ron Paul-He can raise money and his supporters are very loyal, but there are not enough of them.

Johnson-Running on legalizing pot is not enough to win any serious nomination.

Roemer** - If there is a lower than bottom tier, he would be there.

Moore** -If there is a lower than bottom tier, he would be there.

* Undeclared

11 comments:

  1. WHAT?! No mention of Thaddeus McCotter?! I'm hurt, confused, etc...

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  2. Andrew, you are right. That was an oversight on my part. He would sit snugly between Roemer and Moore.

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  3. If Perry is smart he'll stick with the job he loves: being governor of Texas. He might be able to do really interesting things for this race, but (unless President Obama shoots himself in the foot, which of course is possible) I don't think he can win. It's too soon after another Texas Governor, against whom Obama ran (even though GWB2 wasn't running) and won four years ago....

    I hope Palin doesn't jump in either. (Why some conservatives might reasonably question her solidity on truly real conservative matters: http://www.frontporchrepublic.com/2011/06/the-death-of-the-family/ Not sure to what extent I agree with the article, but it's an interesting read. I like the kinds of questions it raises and the serious thought it tries to introduce to the conversation.)

    At least I'm now interested in finding out who Cain is, and what he's all about. Which is more than I was a couple months ago. Not that I can claim to be at all typical, or particularly important for his campaign to win over. But outside-the-box at least keeps things interesting.

    And I'm not ruling Romney out either... RomneyCare may be a problem, but he doesn't feel as fake/overprocessed as he did four years ago, and (in the one debate I caught a little of, which admittedly isn't much to go on) I had the impression he's hammering his strong running point -- economic knowhow and experience -- better than last time. Whether that's enough, I have no idea.

    Whoever the candidate is, if elected, should tap Gingrich for some cabinet spot, or otherwise get his brain working for the president's team... but not from the final-decision seat behind the desk in the Oval Office.

    And it's hard to believe I'm making all these comments about politics. You people have corrupted me. :-P

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  4. Races are always exciting...and this one seems unusually difficult to predict. (Although, who would ever have called McCain!?)

    I have a bunch of thoughts...but I just throw in one concerning my personal favorite (although he certainly isn't a front-runner at present):

    Ron Paul. You placed him in the third tier...I think he ought to be middle tier or higher. Some reasoning...

    - Concerning money: he'll place towards the top (although probably very distant from Romney).

    - Concerning experience: military + OB/GYN + several terms in the House (including three victories as a non-incumbent!) = enough real world experience to differentiate him from other politicians...but plenty enough political experience to show he knows law, economics, and how to win a campaign as both an incumbent and a non-incumbent.

    - Concerning support: you mentioned that his followers are loyal (and they are), but not many. You're correct...but I want to add that they are more numerous than those of Santorum and Pawlenty alike (both of whom you placed higher up).

    - Concerning media attention: Although he's sometimes ignored in articles talking about GOP candidates...generally he is included and in a unique way (which makes him memorable==adds name recognition). Additionally he has TONS of interviews...from the daily show to all things FOX to CNN, etc. He's quite active...my Democrat grandparents even know who he is and like some of his ideas (and no, not because of me...because of CNN).

    - Concerning his quirkiness: he's not a normal candidate...a little fiery...a little on edge. But he's legit. He gives people a sense of "real"...he says what he thinks, not what he thinks you want to hear...and that comes through. Probably one of his biggest problems is that he often talks at a high scholastic level (big words, conveys complex idea in just a couple sentences.). I feel like he might lose people who are either unintelligent, uninformed, or both.

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    So, while he certainly is not a front runner... He is finding some success. He is raising money. Publishing successful books. He is Landing great interviews with the media frequently. He is Polling higher than Santorum and Pawlenty. Plus he has lots of great experience.

    Maybe consider placing him in the second tier for a bit. While I would predict his victory...I think his chances are in the Cain or higher range.

    Just a thought : )

    jamie

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  5. Jamie, those are good thoughts. I, however, don't think I'd move him up because unlike Santorum and Pawlenty he doesn't have room for improvement.

    Ron Paul always has (and I imagine always will) poll about 10%. He has not moved this numbers in 3.5 years. So, although he currently polls higher, I don't have reason to believe that he will increase. Both Pawlenty and Santorum do have that opportunity.

    My list is not who I like, rather it is what I think their chances are. And I think that it would take a miracle for Ron Paul to get the nomination.

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  6. A link for some poll numbers: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

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  7. Jamie, at this point in the race, polling means nothing. In on July 7, 2007, Giuliani was leading the polls and Thompson was in second. Neither of them went anywhere. Polling 6 months before the primaries/caucuses means nothing, and has a very bad track record.

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. So I second Mullins... While McCotter has virtually no chance of winning, I doubt that is why he is running. He has the makings of the new Ron Paul, only with improved communication skills. I hope he gets the chance to voice his opinion and ideas, because they are noteworthy.

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